Scenario planning

In this lesson

1. 0:00 Introduction to scenario planning
2. 1:01 Best case, worst case, and middle scenarios
3. 2:45 Five-step scenario planning methodology
4. 4:20 Advantages and disadvantages of scenario planning
5. 6:28 Clear Course Consulting exam question walkthrough

About this lesson

This technique helps you identify key variables and drivers using frameworks like PESTEL and Porter's five forces, then construct best-case, worst-case, and mid-range scenarios to test your strategy's resilience. The five-step process—defining scope, identifying drivers, constructing scenarios, running implications, and developing responsive strategies—ensures you're ready to act decisively whatever happens. This is essential exam knowledge for Strategic Business Leader and other strategic modules, and a practical skill for leaders managing uncertainty in real business environments. The main advantage is confidence: detailed scenario planning forces you to understand your business and marketplace deeply, considers external perspectives, and means you're genuinely prepared rather than caught off guard. The trade-offs are real—it demands time, staff training, and resources—and it's difficult to plan for rare, extreme events (long-tail risks) without tying up disproportionate resources. This recording walks you through a worked exam question showing how businesses can miss critical stages of scenario planning, and what that costs them in strategy execution and market readiness.

Duration: 9m