Evaluation, scenario planning and stress testing

In this lesson

1. 0:00 Introduction to SAF analysis framework
2. 0:56 Understanding suitability in strategy
3. 1:18 Assessing stakeholder acceptability
4. 2:26 Evaluating feasibility and resources
5. 3:04 Scenario planning for uncertain futures
6. 3:29 Disruptive technology and market change
7. 5:17 Digital natives versus digital immigrants
8. 7:37 Forecasting methods and limitations
9. 8:57 Delphi method and consensus approaches
10. 9:35 Foresight versus forecasting distinction
11. 10:09 Game theory in competitive strategy
12. 10:56 Stress testing financial and strategic risk
13. 13:16 Applying stress testing to strategies
14. 13:57 Wade's future scenarios for planning

About this lesson

You'll discover the SAF analysis framework (suitable, acceptable, feasible) that helps you filter strategic ideas rigorously, then explore practical tools like scenario planning, disruption analysis, forecasting, and stress testing to anticipate what could happen and build resilience into your plans. The first part covers SAF analysis in detail. Suitable means strategic fit—does the option align with your strengths, address weaknesses, capitalise on opportunities, and move you toward your mission? Acceptable means stakeholder buy-in across shareholders, employees, customers, suppliers, and the community; you'll learn why this matters for long-term reputation and performance. Feasible means you have the money, time, skills, and resources to deliver. Understanding these three dimensions helps you eliminate weak options before they waste time and resources. The second part equips you to navigate uncertainty. Scenario planning helps you anticipate what could happen without trying to predict the future exactly—you identify key variables and ask "what if" to stay ahead of change. You'll explore disruptive technology (like how Airbnb and Netflix reshaped their industries) and the difference between digital natives and digital immigrants, which affects how organisations understand customer needs. You'll also learn forecasting methods—from judgemental and consensus approaches to the Delphi method—and distinguish between forecasting (predicting the past forward) and foresight (exploring possible futures). Finally, stress testing lets you challenge your strategy by throwing extreme but plausible scenarios at it. Originally developed in banking after the 2008 financial crisis to test whether banks could survive economic shocks, this technique now applies to any strategic plan. By stress testing your strategy against scenarios like global bazaar, cautious capitalism, or territorial dominance, you'll understand how robust your plans really are and where vulnerabilities lie—critical thinking for the SBL case study.

Duration: 15m